A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
